The Crimea issues in Ukrainian-Russian relations: political analysis

Abstract

The thesis is a comprehensive study of the «Crimean issues» and their impact on the development of Ukrainian-Russian interstate cooperation. For the first time, a comprehensive analysis of the domestic and foreign historiography of the study of the «Crimean problems» in Ukrainian-Russian relations, in particular, and the main problems of interstate interaction in post-bipolar conditions, taking into account the historical context, in general, was carried out. This created a foundation for the correct placement of accents and the development of an objective assessment of issues that are confrontational in Ukrainian-Russian relations. It is proposed to study the «Crimean problems» in Ukrainian-Russian relations, based on a theoretical and conceptual framework, which is a complex of scientific approaches that were formed at the junction of several sciences (history, philosophy, political science, international relations, etc.). The importance and scientific expediency of using the institutional theory of the study of «Crimean problems», the theory of Crimean regionalism, the civilizational direction of the study of historical processes on the Crimean Peninsula, taking into account the geopolitical dynamics of the development of the Black Sea region in general and the theory of the balance of forces, which provides a clear understanding of the reasons for the creation of Crimean autonomy as part of an independent of Ukraine and the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the reformatting of the global balance of power. The theoretical and conceptual toolkit of the classical theory of the regional security complex was used to conduct a deeper analysis of the Crimean crisis and the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war in the context of global transformations of the world order. The author's vision of the scenario of the development of events in Crimea under the conditions of military operations «Deoccupation of Crimea by military means and its consequences» was formed, which took into account the main characteristics, key events, key players and indicators of the scenario's implementation. Potential scenarios (threats) («black swans») in 2024 were comprehensively analyzed, as well as their probability in the aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, and potential «black swans» that require careful monitoring and readiness to respond to possible crises were identified, providing strategic planning and minimization of risks.